Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 12.280706 14.335430 16.579530 19.206028 22.189052 25.464799 29.327182
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 8.884105 11.629330 14.927298 19.151253 24.384422 30.619677 38.572045
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 6.464124 9.374543 13.177163 18.439995 25.454200 34.390593 46.531205
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 4.888088 7.774612 11.838169 17.854620 26.388382 37.887638 54.343827
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 3.970549 6.854870 11.189877 17.992067 28.162194 42.521366 63.966962
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 3.194645 5.963306 10.388814 17.716719 29.211916 46.137849 72.395100
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 2.826734 5.643635 10.388807 18.608958 32.027152 52.475331 85.187756
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.434333 5.193738 10.086540 18.939627 33.949213 57.575745 96.475424
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.073527 4.723147 9.662327 18.982325 35.364490 61.951920 106.920322
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.777178 4.313502 9.274288 19.015351 36.727940 66.303465 117.583573
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.687384 4.310019 9.639839 20.439253 40.602897 75.020626 135.848011
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.553815 4.183678 9.741992 21.368883 43.663415 82.565084 152.635369
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.409574 4.014219 9.751730 22.159419 46.616352 90.267751 170.435046
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.200620 3.645753 9.290423 21.961289 47.714098 94.839721 183.249550
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.979249 3.190382 8.561231 21.109529 47.456605 96.953458 191.903328
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.807257 2.819600 7.956805 20.432171 47.453925 99.499615 201.457065
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.707711 2.626920 7.741616 20.579749 49.130271 105.285947 217.243847
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.600643 2.381239 7.350204 20.267418 49.801194 109.176755 229.732797
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.564481 2.350958 7.509548 21.269515 53.372463 118.945537 253.848112
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.507141 2.233879 7.415579 21.640684 55.581666 126.134283 273.395727
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.445591 2.083703 7.203454 21.688503 57.065142 131.945882 290.585195
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.391734 1.944825 6.998394 21.725548 58.520278 137.781421 308.129856
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.387448 1.997797 7.371856 23.324384 63.745656 151.766177 342.617102